Maintaining a strong mid-energy chemical
From; Author:
China's central bank rate hike in the capital city in the limited impact on domestic goods, but bargain-hunting for the medium to long term investors a buying opportunity. Energy and chemical species in the maintenance of medium-term there will also be a strong division, of which natural rubber (31415,155.00,0.50%) stronger trend, while the PVC is weak.
The central bank to raise interest rates, the domestic energy and chemical species performed significantly better than species outside the disk, the key factor is the understanding of domestic and foreign investors on interest rates vary. We believe that the rate hike may open a new round of interest rate cycle, our window of substantive bearish significance than the macro guide, and on the energy and chemical species, including the impact of stock and commodities prices will be relatively limited. Concern that the domestic real estate market still includes a lot of money from the stock market and futures markets continued, the possibility of continued capital inflows are very high. Although including natural rubber futures prices of commodities, including at high level during the year, but the money market, the interest rate increase after the remains of the city may continue to strengthen. Therefore, we believe that even if the past month or more than 30% of total natural rubber, to maintain a strong probability of the event is still large.
We expect that before the G20 summit will compromise national monetary policy and coordination, the dollar index will be launched during the rebound instead of reversal in the short term, including varieties of crude oil and other energy commodities will be a certain pressure. However, emerging markets led by China will maintain strong demand for resources, related products has received support. After crude oil fell 4.3%, and further downside is limited, in the fourth quarter fell below 75 dollars is difficult to support. Affected by strong domestic energy and chemical species will remain, difficult to have sustained significant pullback.
Long-term trend of dollar depreciation, OECD inventories to improve and dominated by China, continued growth in emerging markets will drive demand for crude oil, including the main driver of commodity prices, we expect the fourth quarter, high crude oil is expected to exceed 100 U.S. dollars / barrel. At the same time, domestic natural rubber and other chemical varieties of medium-term rally is not over yet, short-term adjustment is limited, medium-term investors can hold more than a single dip.
